The global semiconductor industry is currently in a phase of cyclical adjustment. The price of SHFE tin maintains a fluctuating trend [SMM Tin Morning News]

SMM Tin Morning Brief on August 12, 2025:

Futures: The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2509) opened higher in the night session before a slight correction, closing at 269,600 yuan/mt, up 0.61% from the previous trading day.

Macro: (1) According to the latest statistics from CINNO Research, the total investment in China's semiconductor industry (including Taiwan) reached 455 billion yuan in H1 2025, down 9.8% YoY, reflecting the cyclical adjustment phase of the global semiconductor industry. The decline has significantly narrowed compared to the 41.6% YoY drop last year. (2) In response to market rumors that "Nvidia and AMD agreed to hand over 15% of their AI chip sales revenue from the Chinese market to the US government," Nvidia stated that it complies with the rules set by the US government for participating in the global market. The demand for accelerated computing is global, and Nvidia will continue to serve as many customers as possible within the rules. As of now, AMD has not responded. (3) Trump posted that he "will not impose tariffs on gold!" but provided no further explanation. On July 31, US Customs and Border Protection notified a New York company that gold bars imported from Switzerland would be subject to the so-called reciprocal tariffs imposed by Trump on Switzerland, currently at 39%. Gold prices subsequently surged. The Trump administration issued a statement last week saying Trump would sign an executive order to clarify gold tariff levels, but no such order has been released yet.

Fundamentals: (1) Supply-side disruptions: Tin ore supply is tightening in major production areas like Yunnan, and some smelters may maintain maintenance shutdowns or slight production cuts in August (Bullish★). (2) Demand side: PV industry: After the installation rush, orders for PV tin bars in east China declined, and some producers saw lower operating rates. Electronics industry: End-users in south China entered the off-season, coupled with high tin prices, leading to strong wait-and-see sentiment, with orders limited to just-in-time procurement. Other sectors: Demand for tinplate and chemicals remained stable, with no unexpected growth.

Spot market: Despite high overall prices, some companies made just-in-time procurement and small purchases. Most traders reported transactions of around 10 mt, while a few traded about two truckloads. Some spot traders had low inventories but showed weak restocking interest, and smelters' offers remained high, resulting in generally subdued spot performance.

[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment advice. Clients should make decisions cautiously and not use it as a substitute for independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]